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Typhoon MIRINAE (Pre-SANTI/23W) CAT# 2. 6PM Oct 28: 16.3N 136.1E 160 kph West @ 28 kph Eastern Luzon

By: Gene Davis Posted: October-26-2009 in
New Storm For The Philippines
Gene Davis

Typhoon MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI) moving closer quickly to the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...wind speeds now at 140 kph...threatens Eastern Luzon.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook remains the same...expected to continue tracking Westward within the next 1-2 days, will enter PAR tonight approx 8 PM. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning a little WSW beginning tomorrow evening...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on early Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon (185 kph), passing more or less 300 km. North of Camarines Sur. The core shall make landfall just north of Casiguran, Aurora Saturday afternoon Oct 31 and cross Northern Aurora, Southern Isabela, Quirino, Benguet, La Union and exit thru Lingayen Gulf-Cape Bolinao Area in Northern Pangasinan on Sunday morning, Nov 1st. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Monday, November 02. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing north of Camarines Norte and traversing Polillo Islands and making landfall over Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 31-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE continues to pick up strength along the warm waters of the Western Pacific...its circulation continues to improve, with the appearance of a small-ragged EYE. Its rainbands remains at sea and not yet affecting any major islands. The initial effects of its outer rainbands over Eastern Luzon can be expected beginning Friday, Oct 30. 6 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]


Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Wed October 28 2009
Location of Eye: 16.3º N Lat 137.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 245 km (133 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 1,415 km (765 nm) ENE of Bicol Region
Distance 3: 1,620 km (875 nm) East of Aurora
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
6 to 12-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 150 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 31 kph (17 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: S.Isabela-N.Aurora Area
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft (5.7 m)


Staying Informed-Staying Safe

Well, here we go again everyone. Just when we all thought the storms might be gone for this year, here comes yet another one.

So once again if there is anyone reading these storm updates that would like or needs information as each storm advances that I am not posting; PLEASE LEAVE ME A NOTE HERE OR FEEL FREE TO EMAIL ME DIRECTLY AT: genedavis2003 [at] fastmail [dot] fm

I will do my best to find and publish the requested information or will reply via email if requested to do so.

Stay dry everyone and stay safe…


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